Department of Trade & Industry

(Software and Model written & designed by K.E.Wojciechowicz)

ECONOMETRIC MODEL OF SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY DEC.2004 - DEC.2010

(NOTE: Percentage changes are on Year-on-Year bases)

List of Model Variables

• Endogenous Variables
• Exogenous Variables
• Endogenous Variable Equations estimated by multiple regression

  Model Summary

• GDP - Demand Side
• . Gross domestic product at market prices Constant 1995 prices.Seasonally adjusted at annual
• . Final consumption expenditure by general government Constant 1995 prices.Seasonally adjust
• . Change in inventories Constant 1995 prices.Seasonally adjusted at annual rate
• . Exports of goods & services Constant 1995 prices.Seasonally adjusted at annual rate
• GDP - Supply Side
• . Gross value added at basic prices of all industries Constant 1995 prices. Seasonally adjus
• . Gross value added at basic prices of secondary sector Constant 1995 prices. Seasonally adj
• Rates, Indicators, Balance of Payment
• . Total consumer prices Percentage change over twelve months
• .Real Prime Overdraft Rate

     Capital Formation

• ross saving - Total Constant prices. Seasonally adjusted R millions
• otal Fixed capital stock,constant prices,annualized pct changes
• epreciation rate of fixed capital
• et fixed capital formation Constant prices R millions
• oreign Investments (Rs6206 in constant prices)
• Financing of Gross Capital Formation
• Gross Fixed Capital Formation by type of Asset
• Components of Gross Fixed Capital Formation
• Gross Fixed Capital Formation by kind of economic activity

     REAL GDP - Demand Side

• . Gross domestic product at market prices Constant 1995 prices.Seasonally adjusted at annual (Forecast)
• . Final consumption expenditure by households: Total Constant 1995 prices.Seasonally adjuste (Forecast)
• . Final consumption expenditure by households: Durable goods Constant 1995 prices.Seasonally (Forecast)
• . Final consumption expenditure by households: Semi-durable goods Constant 1995 prices.Season (Forecast)
• . Final consumption expenditure by households: Non-durable goods Constant 1995 prices.Seasona (Forecast)
• . Final consumption expenditure by households: Services Constant 1995 prices.Seasonally adju (Forecast)
• . Gross fixed capital formation Constant 1995 prices.Seasonally adjusted at annual rate (Forecast)
• . Gross fixed capital formation: Residential buildings - Total Constant 1995 prices.Seasonall (Forecast)
• . Gross fixed capital formation: Non-residential buildings - Total Constant 1995 prices.Seaso (Forecast)
• . Gross fixed capital formation: Construction works - Total Constant 1995 prices.Seasonally (Forecast)
• . Gross fixed capital formation: Transport equipment - Total Constant 1995 prices.Seasonally (Forecast)
• . Gross fixed capital formation: Machinery and other equip- ment - Total Constant 1995 prices (Forecast)
• . Gross fixed capital formation: Transfer costs Constant 1995 prices.Seasonally adjusted at (Forecast)
• . Imports of goods & services Constant 1995 prices.Seasonally adjusted at annual rate (Forecast)
• . Change in inventories Constant 1995 prices.Seasonally adjusted at annual rate (Forecast)
• . Exports of goods & services Constant 1995 prices.Seasonally adjusted at annual rate (Forecast)
• . Final consumption expenditure by general government Constant 1995 prices.Seasonally adjust (Forecast)
• . Residual item Constant 1995 prices.Seasonally adjusted at annual rate (Forecast)
• .Gross fixed capital formation: Mining & Quarrying Constant 1995 prices.Seasonally adjusted at annual rate (Forecast)
• .Gross fixed capital formation: Manufacturing Constant 1995 prices.Seasonally adjusted at annual rate (Forecast)
• .Gross fixed capital formation: Electricity, gas & water Constant 1995 prices.Seasonally adjusted at annual rate (Forecast)
• .Gross fixed capital formation: Transport, storage and communication Constant 1995 prices.Seasonally adjusted at annual rate (Forecast)
• .Gross fixed capital formation: Financial intermediation, insurance real estate & business services Constant 1995 prices.Seasonally adjusted at annual rate (Forecast)
• .Gross fixed capital formation: Community, social and per- sonal services Constant 1995 prices.Seasonally adjusted at annual rate (Forecast)

     REAL GDP - Supply Side

• . Gross value added at basic prices of all industries Constant 1995 prices. Seasonally adjus (Forecast)
• . Gross value added at basic prices of primary sector Constant 1995 prices. Seasonally adjus (Forecast)
• . Gross value added at basic prices of agriculture, foresty and fishing Constant 1995 prices. (Forecast)
• . Gross value added at basic prices of mining and quarrying Constant 1995 prices. Seasonally (Forecast)
• . Gross value added at basic prices of secondary sector Constant 1995 prices. Seasonally adj (Forecast)
• . Gross value added at basic prices of manufacturing Constant 1995 prices. Seasonally adjust (Forecast)
• . Gross value added at basic prices of electricity, gas and water Constant 1995 prices. Seaso (Forecast)
• . Gross value added at basic prices of construction (contract ors) Constant 1995 prices. Seas (Forecast)
• . Gross value added at basic prices of tetiary sector Constant 1995 prices. Seasonally adjus (Forecast)
• . Gross value added at basic prices of wholesale and retail t rade, catering and accommodatio (Forecast)
• . Gross value added at basic prices of transport, storage and communication Constant 1990 pri (Forecast)
• . Gross value added at basic prices of financial intermediati on, insurance, real estate and (Forecast)
• . Gross value added at basic prices of community, social and and personal services Constant 1 (Forecast)
• . Gross value added at basic prices of other services Constant 1995 prices. Seasonally adjus (Forecast)
• . Gross value added at basic prices of general government ser vices Constant 1995 prices. Sea (Forecast)
• . GDP (market prices - factor prices: Indirect taxes - subsidies). Constant 1995 prices (Forecast)

     NOMINAL GDP - Demand Side

• . Gross domestic product at market prices Current prices.Seasonally adjusted at annual rate (Forecast)
• . Final consumption expenditure by households: Total Current prices.Seasonally adjusted at a (Forecast)
• . Final consumption expenditure by households: Durable goods Current prices.Seasonally adjus (Forecast)
• . Final consumption expenditure by households: Semi-durable goods Current prices.Seasonally a (Forecast)
• . Final consumption expenditure by households: Non-durable goods Current prices.Seasonally ad (Forecast)
• . Final consumption expenditure by households: Services Current prices.Seasonally adjusted a (Forecast)
• . Gross fixed capital formation Current prices.Seasonally adjusted at annual rate (Forecast)
• . Gross fixed capital foramtion: Residential buildings - Tota Current prices.Seasonally adju (Forecast)
• . Gross fixed capital formation: Non-residential buildings - Total Current prices.Seasonally (Forecast)
• . Gross fixed capital formation: Construction works - Total Current prices.Seasonally adjust (Forecast)
• . Gross fixed capital formation: Transport equipment - Total Current prices.Seasonally adjus (Forecast)
• . Gross fixed capital formation: Machinery and other equip- ment - Total Current prices.Seaso (Forecast)
• . Gross fixed capital formation: Transfer costs Current prices.Seasonally adjusted at annual (Forecast)
• . Imports of goods & services Current prices.Seasonally adjusted at annual rate (Forecast)
• . Change in inventories Current prices.Seasonally adjusted at annual rate (Forecast)
• . Exports of goods & services Current prices.Seasonally adjusted at annual rate (Forecast)
• . Final consumption expenditure by general government Current prices.Seasonally adjusted at (Forecast)
• . Residual item Current prices.Seasonally adjusted at annual rate (Forecast)
• .Gross fixed capital formation: Mining & Quarrying Current prices.Seasonally adjusted at annual rate (Forecast)
• .Gross fixed capital formation: Manufacturing Current prices.Seasonally adjusted at annual rate (Forecast)
• .Gross fixed capital formation: Electricity, gas & water Current prices.Seasonally adjusted at annual rate (Forecast)
• .Gross fixed capital formation: Transport, storage and communication Current prices.Seasonally adjusted at annual rate (Forecast)
• .Gross fixed capital formation: Financial intermediation, insurance real estate & business services Current prices.Seasonally adjusted at annual rate (Forecast)
• .Gross fixed capital formation: Community, social and per- sonal services Current prices.Seasonally adjusted at annual rate (Forecast)

     NOMINAL GDP - Supply Side

• . Gross value added at basic prices of all industries Current prices. Seasonally adjusted (Forecast)
• . Gross value added at basic prices of primary sector Current prices. Seasonally adjusted (Forecast)
• . Gross value added at basic prices of agriculture, foresty and fishing Current prices. Seas (Forecast)
• . Gross value added at basic prices of mining and quarrying Current prices. Seasonally adju (Forecast)
• . Gross value added at basic prices of secondary sector Current prices. Seasonally adjusted (Forecast)
• . Gross value added at basic prices of manufacturing Current prices. Seasonally adjusted (Forecast)
• . Gross value added at basic prices of electricity, gas and water Current prices. Seasonally (Forecast)
• . Gross value added at basic prices of construction (contract ors) Current prices. Seasonall (Forecast)
• . Gross value added at basic prices of tetiary sector Current prices. Seasonally adjusted (Forecast)
• . Gross value added at basic prices of wholesale and retail t rade, catering and accommodatio (Forecast)
• . Gross value added at basic prices of transport, storage and communication Current prices. (Forecast)
• . Gross value added at basic prices of financial intermediati on, insurance, real estate and (Forecast)
• . Gross value added at basic prices of community, social and and personal services Current pr (Forecast)
• . Gross value added at basic prices of other services Current prices. Seasonally adjusted (Forecast)
• . Gross value added at basic prices of general government ser vices Current prices. Seasonal (Forecast)
• . GDP (market prices - factor prices: Indirect taxes - subsidies). Current prices (Forecast)

     Inflation & Rates

• .Prime Overdraft Rate (Forecast)
• . Real effective exchange rate of the rand: Average for perio , (Forecast)

     GDP Deflators

• Pct.DEFLATOR: Final consumption expenditure by households: Durable goods Current prices.Seasonally adjus
• Pct.DEFLATOR: Final consumption expenditure by households: Non-durable goods Current prices.Seasonally ad
• Pct.DEFLATOR: Gross fixed capital formation Current prices.Seasonally adjusted at annual rate
• Pct.DEFLATOR: Gross fixed capital formation: Non-residential buildings - Total Current prices.Seasonally
• Pct.DEFLATOR: Gross fixed capital formation: Transport equipment - Total Current prices.Seasonally adjus
• Pct.DEFLATOR: Gross fixed capital formation: Transfer costs Current prices.Seasonally adjusted at annual
• Pct.DEFLATOR: Change in inventories Current prices.Seasonally adjusted at annual rate
• Pct.DEFLATOR: Final consumption expenditure by general government Current prices.Seasonally adjusted at
• Pct.DEFLATOR: Gross value added at basic prices of agriculture, foresty and fishing Current prices. Seas
• Pct.DEFLATOR: Gross value added at basic prices of manufacturing Current prices. Seasonally adjusted
• Pct.DEFLATOR: Gross value added at basic prices of construction (contract ors) Current prices. Seasonall
• Pct.DEFLATOR: Gross value added at basic prices of transport, storage and communication Current prices.
• Pct.DEFLATOR: Gross value added at basic prices of community, social and and personal services Current pr
• Pct.DEFLATOR: Gross value added at basic prices of general government ser vices Current prices. Seasonal
• Pct.DEFLATOR: GDP (market prices - factor prices: Indirect taxes - subsidies). Current prices
• Pct.DEFLATOR: Gross fixed capital formation: Manufacturing Current prices.Seasonally adjusted at annual rate
• Pct.DEFLATOR: Gross fixed capital formation: Transport, storage and communication Current prices.Seasonally adjusted at annual rate

     Exogenous Variables (Autoregressive Forecast)

• . Employment by public authorities : General government Price index 1995 = 100. Seasonally a
• . Disposable income of households Current prices.Seasonally adjusted at annual rate
• . Gross value added at basic prices of other services Constant 1995 prices. Seasonally adjus
• Government: Taxes (4582JJ) on Gross operating surplus (6214JJ) (percent) (Exp.smoothed)
• . Employment in the private sector : Financial intermediation and insurance Price index 1995
• . Employment in the private sector : Mining Price index 1995 = 100. Seasonally adjusted
• .6 Remuneration of residents Current prices.Seasonally, as pcnt of Person.Disp.Income
• . Manufacturing : Unfilled orders Constant 1995 prices. Index 1995 = 100. Seasonally adjuste
• . Employment in the private sector : Manufacturing Price index 1995 = 100. Seasonally adjust
• .ef GDP DEFLATOR as percentage of 6009 Gross Fixed Investment DEFLATOR
• . Foreign exchange rate : SA cent per USA dollar Middle rates (R1 = 100 cents) ,
• Nominal effective exchange rate of the rand : Average for period
• avings by households Constant prices.Seasonally adjusted at annual rate R millions
• . Monetary aggregates : M3 Percentage change over twelve months
• . Change in inventories Current prices.Seasonally adjusted at annual rate
• . Household debt to disposable income of households Current prices. Seasonally adjusted
• . Compensation of residents Current prices.Seasonally adjusted at annual rate
• hange in gold & net foreign reserves - R millions
• .Investment pcnt deflator (6009Lk-Dk) (Exp.smoothed)
• umber of new vehicles sold Index 1995=100. Seasonally adjusted, Index
• lectricity generated index
• uildings completed Constant 1995 prices (Exp.smoothed)
• ondon gold price in rand.
• Spot Oil Prices .
• SA Bank Prime Loan Rate .
• SA Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers:(Pct changes)

     Computed Ratios

• . Final consumption expenditure by households: Total Constant 1995 prices.Seasonally adjuste as ratio of GDP
• . Imports of goods & services Constant 1995 prices.Seasonally adjusted at annual rate as ratio of GDP
• . Change in inventories Constant 1995 prices.Seasonally adjusted at annual rate as ratio of GDP
• . Gross value added at basic prices of primary sector Constant 1995 prices. Seasonally adjus as ratio of GDP
• . Gross value added at basic prices of tetiary sector Constant 1995 prices. Seasonally adjus as ratio of GDP

     Agriculture Sector (constant 95 prices)

• .Agriculture, foresty and fishing: Gross value added at basic prices of Constant 1995 prices.
• .Agriculture: Net Capital formation
• .Agriculture: Capital depreciation rate
• .Agriculture: Capital/Output ratio
• Agriculture:Components of Gross Capital Formation

     Community Sector (constant 95 prices)

• .Community, social and and personal services: Gross value added at basic prices of Constant 1
• .Community: Net Capital formation
• .Community: Capital depreciation rate
• .Community: Capital/Output ratio
• .Community: Labour productivity
• Community:Components of Gross Capital Formation

     Construction Sector (constant 95 prices)

• .Construction (contractors): Gross value added at basic prices of Constant 1995 prices. Seas
• .Construction: Net Capital formation
• .Construction: Capital depreciation rate
• .Construction: Capital/Output ratio
• .Construction: Labour productivity
• Construction:Components of Gross Capital Formation

     Electricity Sector (constant 95 prices)

• .Electricity, gas and water: Gross value added at basic prices of r Constant 1995 prices. Seaso
• .Electricity: Net Capital formation
• .Electricity: Capital depreciation rate
• .Electricity: Capital/Output ratio
• .Electricity: Labour productivity
• Electricity:Components of Gross Capital Formation

     Finance Sector (constant 95 prices)

• .Financial intermediation, insurance, real estate: Gross value added at basic prices of
• .Finance: Net Capital formation
• .Finance: Capital depreciation rate
• .Finance: Capital/Output ratio
• .Finance: Labour productivity
• Finance:Components of Gross Capital Formation

     Manufacturing Sector (constant 95 prices)

• .Manufacturing: Gross value added at basic prices of Constant 1995 prices. Seasonally adjust
• Manufacturing: Net capital formation - Constant 1995 price
• Manufacturing: Capital depreciation rate
• Manufacturing: Capital/Output ratio
• anufacturing: Labour productivity
• Manufacturing:Components of Gross Capital Formation

     Mining Sector (constant 95 prices)

• .Mining and quarrying: Gross value added at basic prices of Constant 1995 prices. Seasonally
• Mining: Net Capital formation
• Mining: Capital depreciation rate
• Mining: Capital/Output ratio
• ining: Labour productivity
• Mining:Components of Gross Capital Formation

     Trade Sector (constant 95 prices)

• .Trade, catering and accommodation: Gross value added at basic prices of
• .Trade: Net Capital formation
• .Trade: Capital depreciation rate
• .Trade: Capital/Output ratio
• .Trade: Labour productivity
• Trade:Components of Gross Capital Formation

     Transport Sector (constant 95 prices)

• .Transport, storage and communication Gross value added at basic prices of Constant 1990 pri
• .Transport: Net Capital formation
• .Transport: Capital depreciation rate
• .Transport: Capital/Output ratio
• .Transport: Labour productivity
• Transport:Components of Gross Capital Formation