| ECONOMIC OVERVIEW | |
|
Since
diamond mining began in 1971, Botswana has posted uninterrupted growth and
soaring per capita incomes in most years. The diamond industry transformed
Botswana from an agricultural based economy to one in which diamonds
account for more than 80 percent of exports and 50 percent of government
revenues. Although
the country has made significant progress since independence, economic
diversification is currently the overriding objective of the
government’s planning and policy formulation. The production of diamonds
has reached a plateau, following the completion of the Orapa mine
expansion in 2000, and no significant growth impetus is expected to
originate from this sector in the near future. The international market
for diamonds has also weakened, due mainly to the slowdown in economic
growth worldwide. These poor prospects, coupled with the problems of
unemployment, poverty and HIV/AIDS, underline the need for a continued
thrust toward economic diversification as a strategy for development. Revised
economic forecasts, prepared as part of National Development Plan 9
(NDP9), indicate that during the NDP8 period, the economy will perform
better than originally projected, with an average growth of 6.7 percent
per year. This better performance is due to higher average output growth
in the mining sector of 6.8 percent per year, compared to the 3.0 percent
forecast, as well as the better average non-mining sectors’ performance,
which is expected to be around 6.6 percent per year. Improved non-mining
sector growth indicates progress is being achieved towards sustainable
economic diversification. The government believes the need to accelerate
the pace of economic diversification has become more critical now, in view
of the country’s national Vision 2016 which sets out a course to ensure
"prosperity for all by the year 2016". The
government recognises that the public sector has to perform to the level
conducive to private sector growth, consistent with international norms,
to realise economic diversification. This was reflected in the 2002 Budget
Speech theme 'Implementing Public Sector Reform: a Way Forward for
Sustainable Economic Diversification'. A
number of reforms, aimed at enhancing efficiency in the delivery of
services by the public sector have recently been introduced. These include
decentralisation and computerisation of the personnel management system
and adoption of the Performance Management System (PMS). These measures
are considered crucial to the creation of an environment that will produce
high rates of investment and sustained development. The
government has undertaken further initiatives and policy reforms for the
liberalisation of the economy in order to broaden and strengthen the
foundation for economic diversification. During the past year the Public
Enterprise Evaluation and Privatisation Agency (PEEPA) has been
established to oversee the implementation of the Privatisation Policy. A
master plan is presently being prepared to provide the basis for
implementation of the policy. The
process of obtaining a sovereign credit rating was completed in 2001 when
Botswana was assigned “A” grades by Moody’s rating agency in March
2001, and by Standard and Poors rating agency in April of the same year.
These ratings are, by far, the most favourable awarded to any country in
Africa. These high investment grade ratings should be of assistance in
attracting both portfolio and direct foreign investment. Following the
publication of these ratings, a strong positive sentiment about Botswana
has been generated in financial markets in the region and abroad. In
response, the government decided to take advantage of the ratings and
proceeded to establish a marker in financial markets by implementing bond
issues during 2002. These bond issues, in particular the issue of a
Pula-denominated bond, will alleviate the shortage of long term domestic
financial assets and will help to further develop the local capital
market. During
2000/2001, real gross domestic product (GDP) rose to 9.1 percent, compared
to 8.1 percent in the previous year. The improved growth rate was
primarily due to exceptionally strong performance in the mining sector,
which grew by 19.6 percent. Similar performances were experienced during
the 1970s and the first half of the 1980s when new diamond mines were
being established. This time, the main reason was the expansion of Orapa
diamond mine, which doubled its output. Non-mining
activity grew at a much lower rate of 3.9 percent, the lowest in six
years. Within non-mining activity, performance was mixed across the
sector. Both the manufacturing and construction sectors fell to 1.6
percent from 3.5 percent and 2.4 percent in 1999/2000. Manufacturing
output was adversely affected by poor performance of textiles, reflecting
a slowdown in export orders and the impact of the closure of the Hyundai
motor vehicle assembly plant in early 2000. The weakness of the
construction sector also affected the demand for building materials. The
slowdown in the implementation of the government’s development programme
during 2000/2001 fiscal year was the main reason for the poor performance
of the construction sector. Real
GDP growth is expected to be around 5 percent during 2001/2002 and
2002/2003 due to the expected fall in the mining sector growth to around 2
percent. Growth in other sectors during these periods is expected to
improve significantly. The country’s foreign exchange reserves rose by
21.5 percent to P41.2 billion at the end of December 2001, representing 39
months of import cover of goods and services. |
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|
Foreign
Reserves
(US$ m;
year-end) |
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|
|
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
|
Total reserves excl. gold |
5,740.5 |
6,025.2 |
6,298.7 |
6,380.3 |
... |
| Sources:
IMF, International Financial Statistics; Bank of Botswana. |
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|
Exchange
Rates
(period averages) |
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|
|
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
|
P: US$ |
3.651 |
4.226 |
4.624 |
5.102 |
5.841 |
| Sources:
IMF, International Financial Statistics; Bank of Botswana. |
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|
Gross
Domestic Product |
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|
|
1996/97 |
1997/98 |
1998/99 |
1999/00 |
2000/01 |
|
Total
(P m) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
At current prices |
17,740 |
20,163 |
21,524 |
25,363 |
28,876 |
|
At constant (1993/94) prices |
12,704 |
13,729 |
14,296 |
15,451 |
16,866 |
|
Real change (%) |
5.6 |
8.1 |
4.1 |
8.1 |
9.1 |
|
Per head (P) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
At current prices |
11,615 |
12,879 |
13,413 |
15,420 |
17,113 |
|
At constant (1993/94) prices |
8,318 |
8,769 |
8,908 |
9,394 |
9,992 |
|
Real change (%) |
3.0 |
5.4 |
1.6 |
5.4 |
6.4 |
| Sources:
Bank of Botswana; Central Statistics Office. |
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|
Gross
Domestic Product by Sector (P
m; constant 1993/94 prices) |
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|
|
1996/97 |
1997/98 |
1998/99 |
1999/00 |
2000/01 |
|
Agriculture |
453.1 |
479.9 |
443.4 |
404.6 |
424.4 |
|
Mining |
4,310.7 |
4,721.8 |
4,588.5 |
5,142.3 |
6,149.0 |
|
Manufacturing |
593.7 |
625.8 |
661.4 |
684.3 |
695.3 |
|
Electricity and water |
268.8 |
295.4 |
333.5 |
371.1 |
395.9 |
|
Construction |
787.9 |
822.1 |
916.9 |
939.4 |
954.8 |
|
Trade, hotels, restaurants |
1,359.0 |
1,422.7 |
1,501.9 |
1,595.6 |
1,706.8 |
|
Transport |
456.4 |
497.8 |
578.7 |
594.0 |
623.7 |
|
Finance, business services |
1,367.9 |
1,500.8 |
1,636.3 |
1,707.3 |
1,756.8 |
|
General government |
2,009.4 |
2,195.7 |
2,333.3 |
2,474.2 |
2,636.7 |
|
Social, personal services |
558.1 |
574.6 |
617.7 |
645.2 |
653.6 |
|
GDP |
12,703.7 |
13,728.6 |
14,295.6 |
15,451.1 |
16,865.8 |
| Sources: Bank of Botswana; Central Statistics Office. | |||||